The I Don't Care Portfolio
The best investment portfolio is one that you don't have to look at. I don't want to care what is happening to the Yen carry trade. I don't want to have to hang on Powell's every word. My goal is to have
Noah Pepper
Financial Relativity
When you are courting a nice girl an hour seems like a second. When you sit on a red-hot cinder a second seems like an hour. That's relativity. - Albert Einstein There is a simple way to structure your investment portfolio to match unanticipated future needs. Every investor&
AI Labor Part 2: Rollout
"The future is already here — it's just not very evenly distributed" - William Gibson In AI Labor Part 1: Leverage we covered * Defining leverage - Why being trustworthy and likeable will be even more rewarded in an AI future * Copilots vs Autopilots - Why most near
AI Labor Part 1: Leverage
The magnification of gains and losses stemming from leverage is typically symmetrical: a given amount of leverage amplifies gains and losses similarly. - Howard Marks I spent the last year replacing manual paperwork tasks with AI. I also heard from people who are terrified and excited about what an AI
Signal & Noise
I believe every little bit of information we consume changes our minds, however subtly. This feels obviously true, just as every bit of food we eat ever so slightly changes our body. Yet, people are even more careless about the information they consume than the food. When I read Neal
Only a fool gets rich twice
Working in Silicon Valley and the tech industry for the last 15+ years I’ve become friends with a lot of people who have a very good problem: They have a life changing amount of money in a single stock. My first experience watching people wrestle with this good problem
Boring Shovels
I'm generally skeptical that I have an edge in public markets. I know a lot of professional investors and they're exceptionally smart and have way more data, time, and other resources than I do. One of the most durable advantages I can have is slightly different
Financial Anxiety
I have told myself, and people have often told me: I just want to have enough money not to worry about money. I found that worrying about money is more about worrying and less about money. Why we worry A lot of people worry about money. People without money worry
Irreconcilable tradeoffs
One of my favourite mental models is: You can have anything you want but not everything you want. I used to think that it would be possible, with enough money or power to overcome every constraint of life. One of the difficult to accept and indispensable truths of the world
Levels & Derivatives
A few years ago I began to more mindfully slow the increase in my lifestyle. This was a decision made to increase my, and my children's, long run enjoyment of life. As humans we often think we care about the level of something (e.g how much money
Allocating Capital: Fixed Income
“No, the thing to buy was Liberty Bonds, and we bought four of them. It was a very exciting business. I descended to a shining and impressive room downstairs, and under the chaperonage of a guard deposited my $4000 in Liberty Bonds, together with “my” bond, in a little tin
Allocating Time: Thinking in Eras
I talk to a lot of smart people who have an incredible array of choices in front of them. One of the most vexing seems to be: How should I spend my time, how should I prioritize my energy? The paradox of choice is that this problem becomes worse for