We live in a wild time where paths in front of young people have never represented more opportunity or more peril. The internet provides nearly infinite free knowledge to learn how to create or do anything. The internet also provides nearly infinite cheap dopamine to waste your time, ruin your
A vision for AI-driven shared prosperity. Last year I was meeting with some partners from a large venture fund that is one of the major backers behind many of the largest tech firms. We were discussing Multiplier and a partner there asked me in a slightly bewildered way: “You’ve
Summary: Single threaded leadership is better than functional leadership, but is harder to hire for and execute. It is the best way to create true scalability and results-oriented teams in a technical organization. “Do you want to be a PM or an EM?” asked Jess on our phone call. It
Almost all successful people have it. Almost all unsuccessful people lack it. There is a specific strain of optimistic thinking that leads to better outcomes - both materially and psychologically. It is important to be precise in our definitions here since there are many subtle meanings of the word optimism
Is the horizon for human progress infinite? Can Economic growth and standards of living rise indefinitely? In 2016 Robert Gordon published The Rise and Fall of American Growth about changes in the US standard of living from 1870-1970, and presented an ostensibly bearish thesis on the future of growth. Weaving
The best investment portfolio is one that you don't have to look at. I don't want to care what is happening to the Yen carry trade. I don't want to have to hang on Powell's every word. My goal is to have
When you are courting a nice girl an hour seems like a second. When you sit on a red-hot cinder a second seems like an hour. That's relativity. - Albert Einstein There is a simple way to structure your investment portfolio to match unanticipated future needs. Every investor&
"The future is already here — it's just not very evenly distributed" - William Gibson In AI Labor Part 1: Leverage we covered * Defining leverage - Why being trustworthy and likeable will be even more rewarded in an AI future * Copilots vs Autopilots - Why most near
The magnification of gains and losses stemming from leverage is typically symmetrical: a given amount of leverage amplifies gains and losses similarly. - Howard Marks I spent the last year replacing manual paperwork tasks with AI. I also heard from people who are terrified and excited about what an AI
I believe every little bit of information we consume changes our minds, however subtly. This feels obviously true, just as every bit of food we eat ever so slightly changes our body. Yet, people are even more careless about the information they consume than the food. When I read Neal
Working in Silicon Valley and the tech industry for the last 15+ years I’ve become friends with a lot of people who have a very good problem: They have a life changing amount of money in a single stock. My first experience watching people wrestle with this good problem
I'm generally skeptical that I have an edge in public markets. I know a lot of professional investors and they're exceptionally smart and have way more data, time, and other resources than I do. One of the most durable advantages I can have is slightly different